Step 1
$4.06B-$4.97B
按公开价值数据机械相加得到的 RP 当前可见资本足迹。 Current visible RP capital footprint under a mechanical sum of public value datapoints.
RP Pipeline Dossier / 2026-04-23
RP 管线估值：把公开资本足迹重构成主报告的统一数字底座 RP pipeline valuation: turning the public capital footprint into the unified numerical base for the main report
当前资本量级先定基数，再用 CAGR 推到 2036，最后把主报告所有 RP 数值统一更新。 Set the current base from the observable capital footprint, extend it with CAGR, then update every RP number in the main report to the same path.
口径定义：只纳入明确写明 RP / XLRP / Usher 相关 RP / RP11 / advanced RP 的资产；更广义的 IRD 公司，只计入其 RP 相关融资、交易和管线。未公开金额不做猜测，直接标为“未披露”。
Scope rule: only assets explicitly labeled as RP / XLRP / RP associated with Usher / RP11 / advanced RP are counted. For broader IRD companies, only RP-related financings, deals, and pipelines are included. Undisclosed amounts remain “Not disclosed.”
建模规则：把公开资本足迹 $4.06B-$4.97B 作为 2026 年 RP 管线估值基数区间，主报告取其中枢 $4.52B；随后统一按 8.6% CAGR 推算到 2036 年，对应主报告中枢约 $10.31B。
Modeling rule: use the visible public capital footprint of $4.06B-$4.97B as the 2026 RP pipeline-valuation base range, anchor the main report at the midpoint of $4.52B, and then extend that path at a unified 8.6% CAGR to a 2036 midpoint of roughly $10.31B.
Visible 2026 Footprint
$4.06B-$4.97B
最宽松、机械相加口径下的公开资本足迹。
Visible public capital footprint under the broadest mechanical-addition view.
Main Report Base
$4.52B
主报告采用区间中枢作为当前 RP 研发市场基数。
The main report uses the midpoint as the current RP R&D market base.
10-Year CAGR
8.6%
当前主报告统一采用的 RP 管线估值增长假设。
The unified RP pipeline-valuation growth assumption now used across the main report.
2036 Implied Midpoint
$10.31B
对应 2036 区间约 $9.26B-$11.34B。
Equivalent to a 2036 range of roughly $9.26B-$11.34B.
Quant Bridge
数字桥接：从公开资本足迹到主报告 2036 新口径 Numerical bridge: from the public capital footprint to the revised 2036 figure in the main report
这个桥接层的作用只有一个：把“资本面整理”变成主报告里可以统一调用的数值底座。它不是纯治疗收入 TAM，而是当前公开资本热度、融资能力、BD 支付意愿与上市估值的合成代理值。 This bridge has one job: turn the capital-market compilation into a unified numerical base that the main report can consistently call. It is not a pure therapy-sales TAM; it is a composite proxy for current capital intensity, financing capacity, BD willingness-to-pay, and public valuation.
Only public disclosed events / 仅统计公开披露
Mechanical addition / 机械相加口径
Main report midpoint / 主报告中枢值
Updated 2026-04-23 / 更新时间 2026-04-23
Step 2
$4.52B
主报告采用区间中枢作为 2026 当前基数。 The main report uses the midpoint as the 2026 current base.
Step 3
8.6%
当前版本统一采用的 RP 管线估值年化增长率。 The annual growth rate now used consistently for the RP pipeline-valuation path.
Step 4
$10.31B
十年后中枢值，对应 2036 区间约 $9.26B-$11.34B。 Ten-year midpoint, corresponding to an implied 2036 range of roughly $9.26B-$11.34B.
主报告新基数 = ($4.06B + $4.97B) / 2 = $4.52B
Main-report base = ($4.06B + $4.97B) / 2 = $4.52B
2036 中枢 = $4.52B × (1 + 8.6%)^10 ≈ $10.31B
2036 midpoint = $4.52B × (1 + 8.6%)^10 ≈ $10.31B
这意味着主报告里所有与 2036 年 RP 管线估值直接相关的数字，都应切换到 $10.31B 这条新路径。
That means every figure in the main report directly tied to the 2036 RP pipeline valuation should now follow the new $10.31B path.
Timeline
2019-2026 关键融资与交易时间线 Key financing and transaction timeline, 2019-2026
这条时间线展示的是资本密度，而不是项目成功率。它最直接说明的一点，是后期 RP 资产已经能从单笔千万美元级融资，跃升到亿美元级融资与数亿美元级 headline value 交易。 This timeline displays capital density rather than project success rate. Its most direct message is that late-stage RP assets have already moved from tens-of-millions financing into $100M-class rounds and deal headline values measured in the hundreds of millions.
Capital Structure
赛道资本结构：四类资产群组，四种估值温度 Capital structure: four asset groups and four different valuation temperatures
你给的文档里最有价值的一点，是把 RP 不再看成一堆零散项目，而是分成了后期注册资产、中期验证资产、早期分型/新机制资产，以及暂停/撤回资产四个群组。真正决定估值的变量，也已经从 science 单点推进到 终点、制造、支付、再融资 四件事。 One of the most useful ideas in your document is that RP should no longer be read as a pile of isolated projects. It already breaks into four recognizable capital groups: late-stage registrational assets, mid-stage validating assets, early precise-subtype / new-mechanism assets, and paused or withdrawn assets. The key valuation variables have also expanded from science alone into endpoints, manufacturing, reimbursement, and refinancing.
这层分类对投研最重要，因为它解释了为什么“融得最多”不等于“项目最好”。后期项目确实吸收最多资金，但中期平台公司也可能因为多项目外延而拿到更高公司层估值；反过来，临床价值不低但融资透明度差的私营公司，往往最难被外部定价。
This classification matters in practice because it explains why “the company that raised the most” is not automatically “the best project.” Late-stage programs do absorb the largest dollars, but mid-stage platform companies can also command high company-level valuation because of multi-asset optionality. By contrast, private companies with real clinical value but limited financing transparency are often the hardest for outside investors to price.
Closest to Market
临近注册/商业化的四条主线 The four lines currently closest to registration or commercialization
按你提供的整理，当前最接近监管终点的 RP 主线集中在四个资产：Nanoscope 的 MCO-010、Beacon 的 laru-zova、Meira 的 bota-vec、Ocugen 的 OCU400。 Based on the compiled dataset you provided, the RP programs currently closest to the regulatory finish line cluster around four assets: Nanoscope’s MCO-010, Beacon’s laru-zova, Meira’s bota-vec, and Ocugen’s OCU400.
Public Capital Events
公开披露的 RP 相关资本事件横向表 Cross-sectional table of publicly disclosed RP-related capital events
这里把即时现金、潜在总对价、适应症与当前状态放在一张表里。金额保留原币种；未披露的地方不补猜测值。 This table puts immediate cash, potential headline value, indication, and current status into one view. Amounts remain in original currency; undisclosed values are not backfilled.
补充说明：Nanoscope 的 MCO-010 是当前 RP 中最接近监管终点的项目之一，但近期可直接引用的股权融资金额在本次整理里未纳入；VeonGen 的 VG901 披露了临床启动，但 Series A 金额未披露。
Supplementary note: MCO-010 is one of the RP programs closest to a regulatory endpoint, but a clearly citable recent equity-financing amount was not included in this compiled pass. VeonGen’s VG901 disclosed clinical initiation, but the Series A amount was not disclosed.
| Company / Asset | Capital Event | Value Basis | Indication | Current Status |
|---|
Current Pipeline
当前 RP 研发管线横向表 Cross-sectional table of the current RP development pipeline
这一层把技术路线、适应症、覆盖方式、阶段与最新进展并排，能直接看出“基因特异”和“mutation-agnostic / advanced RP”两大板块的结构。 This layer lays out modality, indication, coverage logic, stage, and latest milestone side by side, making the split between gene-specific and mutation-agnostic / advanced-RP strategies immediately visible.
Pipeline Bubble Map
全部管线可视化：横轴研发阶段，纵轴市值/估值代理规模，气泡大小对应适应症患者规模 All-pipeline bubble map: development stage on the x-axis, valuation scale on the y-axis, and indication patient scale in bubble size
图中纵轴不是严格的单资产公允价值，而是 公开市值、隐含估值、最新轮融资规模或交易 headline value 组合后的“市值/估值代理规模”，用于比较资本市场对不同项目的承接温度。气泡大小使用适应症口径的患者池数量，仅用于横向视觉比较，不代表可付费治疗人数。
The y-axis is not a strict single-asset fair value. It is a valuation-scale proxy built from public market cap, implied valuation, latest financing size, or deal headline value, and is meant to compare how capital markets underwrite different programs. Bubble size uses indication-level patient pool scale for visual comparison only and does not represent payer-eligible treated prevalence.
| Company / Asset | Modality | Indication | Coverage Logic | Stage | Latest Explicit Progress |
|---|
How to Read the Scale
“整体估值规模”最严谨的三层读法 The three most rigorous layers for reading the “overall valuation scale”
最稳妥的结论不是一个单独数字，而是三件事同时成立：上市端已有十亿美元级聚合市值，私募端已有多笔 $100M 级融资，资产交易端反复出现数亿美元 headline value。 The most rigorous conclusion is not a single number, but the fact that three things are simultaneously true: public markets already show multi-billion-dollar aggregate value, private markets show repeated $100M-class rounds, and asset deals repeatedly reach headline values in the hundreds of millions.
Layer A
可直接观测的上市值 Directly observable public market caps
四家美股公司合计约 US$1.72bn；若并入澳股 PYC，上市端可见资本体量再上一个台阶。 The four visible US-listed companies sum to roughly US$1.72bn; adding ASX-listed PYC pushes the visible public-capital tier higher again.
Layer B
私募端最近一轮融资 Latest private financing rounds
多数私募没有公开 post-money，只能用最新轮融资额代替估值温度计；Beacon、Ray、AAVantgarde、SparingVision 都已达到大额融资级别。 Most private companies do not disclose post-money valuations, so the latest round size becomes the practical valuation thermometer; Beacon, Ray, AAVantgarde, and SparingVision all sit in large-round territory.
Layer C
资产交易 headline value Headline values in asset transactions
Meira/J&J、Kiora/Théa、jCyte/Santen、ProQR/Théa、Ocugen/Kwangdong 的对价结构反复证明：商业方愿意为 RP 资产支付数亿美元 headline value。 The deal structures around Meira/J&J, Kiora/Théa, jCyte/Santen, ProQR/Théa, and Ocugen/Kwangdong repeatedly show that commercial partners are willing to pay headline values in the hundreds of millions for RP assets.
| Layer | Name | Metric | Value / Takeaway |
|---|
这里新增了文档里的补充研究区间，例如“广义公司层面可观察估值”和“RP 资产归因价值”。这些补充带宽用于帮助理解赛道厚度与平台折价，并不替代当前主报告采用的 $4.06B-$4.97B → $4.52B → $10.31B 口径。
This section also adds the supplemental research bands from your document, such as the broader observable company-layer range and the attributable RP asset-value range. Those bands help explain field depth and platform discounting, but they do not replace the current main-report path of $4.06B-$4.97B -> $4.52B -> $10.31B.
Case Notes
五个重点个案：真正决定未来两年重估节奏的项目 Five case notes: the assets most likely to set the repricing tempo over the next two years
下面这组案例不是为了重复表格，而是把你文档里最有判断力的那一层抽出来：每个项目的科学逻辑、融资逻辑、监管逻辑和最大风险点分别是什么。 These case notes are not meant to repeat the tables. They extract the most judgment-rich layer from your document: the scientific logic, financing logic, regulatory logic, and largest risk variable for each flagship asset.
Diligence
数据盲点与后续尽调优先级 Data blind spots and next-step diligence priorities
文档里还有一层很关键的信息：哪些地方目前仍然无法被外部市场稳定定价，以及如果要把这份材料升级成投委会底稿，最值得优先补哪些事实。 Your document also captures an important layer beyond the headline tables: which facts still cannot be stably priced by outside investors, and what should be filled first if this needs to become investment-committee grade material.
Read-through
我对这个赛道资本面的判断 My read on the capital side of the RP field
这部分保留你原始判断的结构，但压缩成可以直接被投资讨论引用的四张要点卡。 This section keeps the structure of your original judgment, but compresses it into four takeaway cards that can be cited directly in investment discussion.